Specchums and the coronavirus.

[Alessandro]

[mention]Ralf[/mention]: The problem is, it could have been Italy, but everywhere else it would have been initally mistaken for some other generic kind of influenza, which it isn't, although the Covid-19 belongs to a family of viruses, the "corona", to which other well-known strains like those causing MERS and SARS belong. I guess we have been dealt the shorter straw, so to speak: after all, the Po valley is one of the most densely populated and industrialized areas of mainland Europe, and a crossroads of traffic between the peninsula and the rest of the continent. The stereotype of Northeners being more akin to Germans is, well, pretty much a stereotype, also because for decades millions of Southerners have been emigrating there, although it is true that generally speaking the quality of health services in those regions is higher than in the South, due to a variety of reasons.

After all, in your country its mandatory to have at least one roll per household

Sorry, it looks like I didn't make myself clear. By a ministerial decree of 1975, it is mandatory that in each household in Italy there should be at least one bathroom with a bidet, not a toilet roll...

[Einar Saukas]

I just realized that every zombie movie and series present people desperately searching for food, medicine and ammo. That's so unrealistic!

Now we know that, if a zombie outbreak happens, everyone will be primarily looking for toilet paper and coffee.

[PeterJ]

I just realized that every zombie movie and series present people desperately searching for food, medicine and ammo. That's so unrealistic!

Now we know that, if a zombie outbreak happens, everyone will be primarily looking for toilet paper and coffee.

And hand sanitizer gel.

[1024MAK]

There is also a thread on WoS about the COVID-19 Corona virus with some interesting posts...

Mark

[Turtle_Quality]

Was due to see Lloyd Cole play in Stockholm yesterday, fly on to the Isle of Man for a few days to see my frail old man, then meet up for a retro gaming weekend with some old friends at Centre Parcs next weekend. Been setting this up for months (even bought and installed a Raspberry Pi with Retropie and loads of games), all scrapped at the last minute with not much of the money back.

Now in lockdown with my family in Finland, schools closed, football training for me and my boy cancelled for the forseeable future and a major recession looming for everyone. Both the kids have stomach bugs and the wife is unwell after meeting a now suspected Covid 19 case 2 days ago.

I've had better weeks.

Still, with Skype / Facebook et al at least being quarantined is a lot less tedious than it was 30 years ago. And that years supply of loo roll that no-one wanted to buy from us to raise funds for the boy's footy team in February is now worth more than my house

[Bedazzle]

You have a personal sauna in your garden? I'm very jealous!

Yes, I have. And before corona we meet with friends every Saturday for chatting, drinking beer and getting steam and hitting self with woods (do not know correct word for this process).

[Bedazzle]

I just realized that every zombie movie and series present people desperately searching for food, medicine and ammo. That's so unrealistic!

Now we know that, if a zombie outbreak happens, everyone will be primarily looking for toilet paper and coffee.

You did my day! ROTFL!!!

[R-Tape]

Yes, I have. And before corona we meet with friends every Saturday for chatting, drinking beer and getting steam and hitting self with woods (do not know correct word for this process).

I don't think we have one! Though there is a "Banya" in Doncaster I gather. (You're Russian or E. Europe aren't you Bedazzle?). The British version of self-flaggelation involving wood is called cricket

[RMartins]

The issue I see everywhere, is that governments in general don't know how to deal with this.
For several reasons:
- The distance, made it seem a problem of China only, hence didn't prepare anything.
- Afraid they rush into a decision, because they know very little about it (specially in the beginning)
- Afraid of the political backlash of a wrong decision
- The uncertainty of virus that was not known well (Still isn't completely understood)
- Very concerned of economy, but they forget, without the people there is no economy

So this all leads to government paralysis, of the kind, let's wait until we know something more, meanwhile the virus spreads like wildfire.

The main thing that is known, that should have been known by any health minister, is that these things grow exponentially!

So the first major action is contention/isolation, because that will hinder the growth of the spread, but this needs to be done as close to the beginning of the spread as possible. Because that's how to minimize an exponential, reduce it's growth factor.

I advise you all to take a look at this very well made video about the exponential growth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg

Humans in general have a very hard time to understand/grasp/visualize an exponential growth and how fast it goes.

So all the doubts governments had, led to delay the most important measure of isolation and inform and convince the people of the gravity of the situation. People need to be scared (with good reason), to act accordingly with the required precautions.

People are also optimists by definition, because that is a mechanism used for survival.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/ ... 84421.html

But the worst of it all, is that the world already knew it was not prepared for this, a few years ago, when there were a lot of other outbreaks, polio, ebola, Chicken Flu, SARS, etc...

There are several TED talks about it, including one by Bill Gates
https://www.ted.com/talks/bill_gates_th ... _not_ready

[RMartins]

This information, might be useful for the British guys around here, as well as others.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... s-covid-19

[djnzx48]

It doesn't seem like that much has really changed around here. A few events are being cancelled but otherwise people are going to work and school as normal (on typically crowded buses).

This is what one of our country's newspapers looked like last weekend:

[Alessandro]

Humans in general have a very hard time to understand/grasp/visualize an exponential growth and how fast it goes.

Any quote about "humans in general" is a wild guess. Group and mass behavior is influenced by several factors, including, but not limited to:
- control patterns established by the ruling classes (Goffman, Foucault)
- group dynamics like cohesion and leadership (Lewin)
- outcome bias, i.e. the tendency to evaluate a situation, right or wrong, on the basis of previous similar (or perceived to be similar) situations (Baron & Hershey)
- the perception of impunity of socially unacceptable behavior (Zimbardo)
- the weight in decision making of figures perceived as authorities (Milgram) or opinion leaders (Lazarsfeld)
- the weight of the majority's opinion (Asch)
- certain personality traits (Adorno)
- the perception of events considered as real, even if they aren't, and the real consequences it produces (Merton)

Etc. etc.

That said, there is some truth in the fact that, since the perception of a gradually rising stimulus is directly proportional to the logarithm of the stimulus's intensity (Fechner's law), the perception of the danger has been, at least in the first few weeks, underestimated, or believed to be limited to China and Eastern Asia. A bit like the story of the boiling frog.

People are also optimists by definition, because that is a mechanism used for survival.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/ ... 84421.html

Again, "optimism" and "pessimism" are labels which might be applied to individual behavior in such a wide variety of situations, that's not possible to ascertain any constant. Other studies might well lead to the conclusion that pessimism can lead to prudence and therefore be a more positive attitude than optimism in times of crisis, especially when optimism becomes exaggerated self-reliance - "it cannot happen to me".

The way I see it, however, is pretty much the same. The experience of previous pandemics like MERS and SARS was different from the Covid-19, since a) diffusion was less intense and b) fatality rate was lower. Outcome biases, fear of interfering with the mechanisms of production or of declaring impopular measures etc. could all have been factors that impacted with the decisions to be made. However I believe, all things considered, that the fact that several other countries are following Italy's example can only be a good thing.

[RWAC]

I dropped the kids to school this morning then went to buy some bread from Tesco because it's always quiet at 8.30 in the morning. Yikes! Not today! It was packed. I don't know what people are doing with all this food because I only have finite cupboard space.
Strange times these be.

[moroz1999]

I don't think we have one! Though there is a "Banya" in Doncaster I gather. (You're Russian or E. Europe aren't you Bedazzle?). The British version of self-flaggelation involving wood is called cricket

I think he meant birch/juniper brooms for sauna

[Firefox]

I dropped the kids to school this morning then went to buy some bread from Tesco because it's always quiet at 8.30 in the morning. Yikes! Not today! It was packed. I don't know what people are doing with all this food because I only have finite cupboard space.
Strange times these be.

Was there any toilet paper left...?

[stupidget]

£9.35 for 16 rolls of Andrex!!! Not surprisingly this was all that was left at Sainsburys near me. The fact that there was boat loads of fresh fruit, salad and vegetables, but hardly any baked beans or rice speaks volumes about the inbred mouth breathers that live by me

[lister_of_smeg]

£9.35 for 16 rolls of Andrex!!! Not surprisingly this was all that was left at Sainsburys near me. The fact that there was boat loads of fresh fruit, salad and vegetables, but hardly any baked beans or rice speaks volumes about the inbred mouth breathers that live by me

Well it would be a little silly to buy a month's worth of fresh food at once, wouldn't it.

[PeterJ]

£9.35 for 16 rolls of Andrex!!! Not surprisingly this was all that was left at Sainsburys near me. The fact that there was boat loads of fresh fruit, salad and vegetables, but hardly any baked beans or rice speaks volumes about the inbred mouth breathers that live by me

That must of been the rather luxurious quilted type!

[R-Tape]

We might have to resort to dock leaves. Then nettles.

[RWAC]

I dropped the kids to school this morning then went to buy some bread from Tesco because it's always quiet at 8.30 in the morning. Yikes! Not today! It was packed. I don't know what people are doing with all this food because I only have finite cupboard space.
Strange times these be.

Was there any toilet paper left...?

Nope!

[RWAC]

I'm still not understanding the UK "strategy" if you can call it that. What makes us special that we don't have to follow the same procedures as the rest of the world?
Maybe we've got an expert strategist working behind the scenes but until I see Julian Gollop heading up a press conference I'm remaining sceptical!

[stupidget]

£9.35 for 16 rolls of Andrex!!! Not surprisingly this was all that was left at Sainsburys near me. The fact that there was boat loads of fresh fruit, salad and vegetables, but hardly any baked beans or rice speaks volumes about the inbred mouth breathers that live by me

Well it would be a little silly to buy a month's worth of fresh food at once, wouldn't it.

Well, theres your problem. I bough bog roll because we need some, I didn't go out with sole purpose of stock pilling a bloody months worth. I have no idea why people are panic buying as the supermarket and suppliers have said that if people just buy what they need then there will be plenty for everybody. It's the usual pack mentality of morons who don't think of others.

[PeterJ]

17,000 bottles!
BBC News - Coronavirus: US man who stockpiled hand sanitiser probed for price gouging
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51909045

[llewelyn]

We might have to resort to dock leaves. Then nettles.

That actually happened to me. I was out in the country walking along a seashore footpath with my dog and a mate of mine. Needed to do the necessary, nipped behind a stand of pine trees for some cover only to discover three possibilities, dock leaves, nettle or pine cones. My bloody mate was bent over laughing hysterically when I called out the problem asked him to look about for some useful trash, paper, plastic bags anything.

Fortunately being seashore there was lots of dry sand but try walking a few miles with a crack full of sand. I would have used dock leaves but they were out of range and my mate wouldn't even pick a few and chuck them to me. Bas**rd.

[stupidget]

We might have to resort to dock leaves. Then nettles.

That actually happened to me. I was out in the country walking along a seashore footpath with my dog and a mate of mine. Needed to do the necessary, nipped behind a stand of pine trees for some cover only to discover three possibilities, dock leaves, nettle or pine cones. My bloody mate was bent over laughing hysterically when I called out the problem asked him to look about for some useful trash, paper, plastic bags anything.

Fortunately being seashore there was lots of dry sand but try walking a few miles with a crack full of sand. I would have used dock leaves but they were out of range and my mate wouldn't even pick a few and chuck them to me. Bas**rd.

What's wrong with using a sock? In the early 90s most of dingy clubs I used to frequent very rarely had loo roll so I had to resort to socks and in some instances boxer shorts